Can GARCH(1,1) predict the stock price? Suggestions?

[batman119]

Hi guys,

Please help me to figure out.
I learned the ARMA and Arch, GARCH model in class. I am just curious whether the model is working or the methodology makes sense.

I estimate the equation as "log(adj_close) c log(adj_close(-1))" due to non-stationary series 'adj_close'.

My data is adjusted stock price from Feb/01/2011 to Feb/07/2012. Find out how the model fit the sample from feb/01/2011 to Dec/01/2011. Later, forecast the stock price with the model to the rest of the sample. Last, I check how is the variance and error with the Actual price and the forecast.

Any suggestions on model selections, forecasting, and others will be really appreciated. :D