GARCH constraints not met?

For technical questions regarding estimation of single equations, systems, VARs, Factor analysis and State Space Models in EViews. General econometric questions and advice should go in the Econometric Discussions forum.

Moderators: EViews Gareth, EViews Moderator

finnecon
Posts: 1
Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2009 12:07 pm

GARCH constraints not met?

Postby finnecon » Thu Mar 26, 2009 12:40 pm

I am trying to use GARCH(1,1) to estimate the parameters for the long-term volatility.

I am following John Hull's method of calculating the long-term volatility.
The long-term volatility is (Coefficient of C) / [1 - (Coefficient for RESID(-1)^2) - (Coefficient for GARCH(-1)]
subsituting w for the Coefficient of C
a for the Coefficient for RESID(-1)^2
b for the Coefficient for GARCH(-1)
You get, Long-Term Variance = w / (1-a-b).

I imported the return data into eviews where return(t) = price(t) / price(t-1) and ran the ARCH method.
Under mean equation, i put, "return c" and leaving all else as default, I pressed OK.

Running this under different time intervals, w, a, and b are sometimes negative.
On some instances, the sum of a and b are greater than 1, which causes the long-term volatility to become "mean fleeting".

How do I adjust the estimation parameters so that the following two constraints are always met?
Constraint 1: a > 0, b > 0, w > 0
Constraint 2: a + b < 1

If anyone sees me doing anything wrong here, please advise. Thanks in advance.

EViews Gareth
Fe ddaethom, fe welon, fe amcangyfrifon
Posts: 13600
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:38 pm

Re: GARCH constraints not met?

Postby EViews Gareth » Thu Mar 26, 2009 1:54 pm

EViews doesn't let you impose constraints on coefficients. However, if you do a forum search you'll see there are a couple of tricks you might be able to use.

startz
Non-normality and collinearity are NOT problems!
Posts: 3797
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2008 2:25 pm

Re: GARCH constraints not met?

Postby startz » Thu Mar 26, 2009 2:36 pm

EViews doesn't let you impose constraints on coefficients. However, if you do a forum search you'll see there are a couple of tricks you might be able to use.
Is it possible to specify explicit coefficients for the GARCH terms?

EViews Gareth
Fe ddaethom, fe welon, fe amcangyfrifon
Posts: 13600
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:38 pm

Re: GARCH constraints not met?

Postby EViews Gareth » Thu Mar 26, 2009 3:38 pm

Ah, good point, it is not, and I apologise for not reading the original post thoroughly enough!


Return to “Estimation”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests