Dynamic/Static Forecasts with ARMA
Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2012 1:42 pm
Hello,
I have a question that I cannot figure out.
I run a very, very simple ARMA(1,1) with the log of Louisiana employment data.
[Cannot attach the workfile because I already have 3 attachments.]
I get this:
Say I run a *static* forecast. I get this:
Now, I do the dynamic version. I get this:
My question is, why does the dynamic not trace the actual data, like the static one?
Thanks very much, Manfred
I have a question that I cannot figure out.
I run a very, very simple ARMA(1,1) with the log of Louisiana employment data.
[Cannot attach the workfile because I already have 3 attachments.]
I get this:
- Stats-ARMA11.JPG (66.22 KiB) Viewed 1775 times
- Static-Forecast.JPG (41.76 KiB) Viewed 1775 times
- Dynamic-Forecast.JPG (40.77 KiB) Viewed 1775 times
Thanks very much, Manfred