Dynamic/Static Forecasts with ARMA

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mandix
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 1:54 pm

Dynamic/Static Forecasts with ARMA

Postby mandix » Wed Jun 20, 2012 1:42 pm

Hello,
I have a question that I cannot figure out.
I run a very, very simple ARMA(1,1) with the log of Louisiana employment data.
[Cannot attach the workfile because I already have 3 attachments.]
I get this:
Stats-ARMA11.JPG
Stats-ARMA11.JPG (66.22 KiB) Viewed 1770 times
Say I run a *static* forecast. I get this:
Static-Forecast.JPG
Static-Forecast.JPG (41.76 KiB) Viewed 1770 times
Now, I do the dynamic version. I get this:
Dynamic-Forecast.JPG
Dynamic-Forecast.JPG (40.77 KiB) Viewed 1770 times
My question is, why does the dynamic not trace the actual data, like the static one?

Thanks very much, Manfred

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