Estimating ARIMA in dlogs but forecasting in logs

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nesheus
Posts: 34
Joined: Tue Oct 26, 2010 11:55 am

Estimating ARIMA in dlogs but forecasting in logs

Postby nesheus » Tue Nov 09, 2010 8:59 am

Hello,
Please see my small forecasting loop. What I do is to estimate an ARIMA equation in dlogs and forecast in dlogs but I want to estimate the ARIMA in dlogs but forcast in logs. Is there a way of doing it?
thanks

for !j=1 to 36
smpl 1990Q1 1999Q4+!j-1

'estimate the ARIMA model
equation eq22_!j.ls dlcopp c ar(1) ar(2) ma(1) ma(2) dum2 dum3 dum4

smpl 1999Q4+!j 1999Q4+!j+7
'forecast 8 quarters ahead
forecast copp_22_!j

'calculating mean squared errors
series rmse22_!jcopp = (copp_22_!j - dlcopp)^2

next

EViews Gareth
Fe ddaethom, fe welon, fe amcangyfrifon
Posts: 13583
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:38 pm

Re: Estimating ARIMA in dlogs but forecasting in logs

Postby EViews Gareth » Tue Nov 09, 2010 10:01 am

Rather than using dlcopp as your dependent variable, use dlog(copp) as your dependent variable (assuming you have a variable called copp).

nesheus
Posts: 34
Joined: Tue Oct 26, 2010 11:55 am

Re: Estimating ARIMA in dlogs but forecasting in logs

Postby nesheus » Tue Nov 09, 2010 11:03 am

yes, copp is the variable. I changed it the way you suggested, it worked. thanks

raquelopez
Posts: 8
Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:42 am

Re: Estimating ARIMA in dlogs but forecasting in logs

Postby raquelopez » Fri Apr 08, 2011 2:24 am

Hello,

I have a problem: I have done something similar because I also want to estimate the model in dlogs but to forecast in logs and what I obtain by using as dependent variable dlog(y) is the forecasting in levels of the variable instead of logs.

I would be very grateful if you could help me.
Thanks,
Raquel

EViews Gareth
Fe ddaethom, fe welon, fe amcangyfrifon
Posts: 13583
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:38 pm

Re: Estimating ARIMA in dlogs but forecasting in logs

Postby EViews Gareth » Fri Apr 08, 2011 7:54 am

Assuming your dependent variable is Y, then create a new series equal to logy = log(y), then use d(logy) as the dependent variable.

raquelopez
Posts: 8
Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:42 am

Re: Estimating ARIMA in dlogs but forecasting in logs

Postby raquelopez » Sat Apr 09, 2011 12:50 am

Thank you,
Raquel


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