Non performing loans estimation

[AdinaS]

I am trying to forecast the npl ratio for 2010-2012. I have the data for npl ration from 2001:1 - 2009:12. Unfortunately I am not very good in E-views and it is the first time I am using it.After stationarizing I’ve tried to find the right ARMA model, and the best model I could find was
D_npl c ar(2) ma(80), but for MA the q is very very large. Is it normally? In other studies I’ve seen that normally q lies between 0 and 2 and mine is…80….
Can you please help me??

[McKyle025]

I think, the result of your estimation is just normal. But I don't know exactly how that works. I am using the Lamm Model for estimating non-performing loans, this works for me certainly.

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