Hi
I have two monthly varialbes - employment and wages at the county level. Wage data is released with a lag of 6 months. I'd like to forecast the current values of wages (for the past six months) before it is reported. Since these two varilabes are tested to be cointegrated of order 1, I ran VECM with using them as endogenous variables (and a month dummy as an exogenous variable).
Residual tests suggest strong autocorrelation in the residuals. In particular, the correlogram shows huge spiks in the 12th lag (see attachment). How may I address this serial correlation in the residuals. The model already includes the month dummy to capture the seasonality. I think I should try seasonal differencing. Is there an option for this in VECM?
Thank you.
seasonality in VEC
Moderators: EViews Gareth, EViews Moderator
seasonality in VEC
- Attachments
-
- correlogram.doc
- (27.5 KiB) Downloaded 504 times
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests
