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The forecasting process
Posted: Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:41 am
by ESVAL2016
Hi, for all
how to convert the differenced forecast series to the original series !!
Thanks for your help.
Regards,,
Re: The forecasting process
Posted: Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:46 am
by EViews Gareth
We'll need more detail.
Re: The forecasting process
Posted: Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:59 am
by ESVAL2016
Thanks a lot for your help.
When I started with my series, I found my series is non-stationary.
I converted my series to be stationary by using:: diff.
And, I found the fit model in this case and I did the forecasting process for the differenced series.
Now, I want to find the forecasting for the original series.
Thanks for your time.
Re: The forecasting process
Posted: Mon Feb 08, 2016 11:00 am
by EViews Gareth
By default if you estimate an equation where the dependent variable is a difference, it will forecast the undifference values.
Re: The forecasting process
Posted: Mon Feb 08, 2016 11:02 am
by EViews Gareth
Re: The forecasting process
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2016 2:26 am
by ESVAL2016
Thanks a lot for your cooperation.
But here,
If the model includes a lagged dependent variable. It matters for forecasting purposes whether the dependent variable is an auto series or not.
My series not Auto series, and the differenced series here as ordinary series.
Regards,
Re: The forecasting process
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:42 am
by ESVAL2016
So, in this case, we can write the first difference in the estimate equation as d(1) or not?? in order to work directly with the original series.
What is your opinion??
For example:
Thanks for your help.
Re: The forecasting process
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:42 am
by EViews Gareth
I don't understand your question. Just write the dependent variable as d(myseries). You can include lags as independent regressors if you want - it doesn't change anything.