Forecasting with VECM and Random walk

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ali
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2009 6:05 pm

Forecasting with VECM and Random walk

Postby ali » Sun Jul 26, 2009 6:14 pm

I have to compare out-of-sample forecasts of VECM and random walk models. How can estimate random walk model in Eviews? I need simple driftless random walk.
And second, how to implement out-of-sample forecasts using VECM? I tryed to do the model in Procs menu and then solve it, but it makes just 1 step of the forecasts...
Also, I need to estimare root mean square error from these forecasts...
Can you help plz?

trubador
Did you use forum search?
Posts: 1520
Joined: Thu Nov 20, 2008 12:04 pm

Re: Forecasting with VECM and Random walk

Postby trubador » Sun Jul 26, 2009 11:07 pm

How can estimate random walk model in Eviews?
Search the forum please.
how to implement out-of-sample forecasts using VECM?
Try "Dynamic Solution".
I need to estimare root mean square error from these forecasts
This code might be helpful.

ali
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2009 6:05 pm

Re: Forecasting with VECM and Random walk

Postby ali » Mon Jul 27, 2009 5:17 pm

Still do not understand.
If I need to implement 4, 10, 16, 20 step ahead forecasts, how can I specify it in the solve menu?

trubador
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Posts: 1520
Joined: Thu Nov 20, 2008 12:04 pm

Re: Forecasting with VECM and Random walk

Postby trubador » Mon Jul 27, 2009 10:47 pm

You need to adjust the sample size accordingly. Please read the help files and/or search the forum for detailed explanations and examples.

ali
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2009 6:05 pm

Re: Forecasting with VECM and Random walk

Postby ali » Tue Jul 28, 2009 3:15 am

Does it mean, if, for example I need to implement 4 step aheap forecasts for weekly observations with the in-sample series ending 31.12.2006, I must define forecast sample as 7.1.2005 to 28.1.2005?


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