Normality of variables in time series regression

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EktaS
Posts: 16
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 4:45 am

Normality of variables in time series regression

Postby EktaS » Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:04 am

Hi

i am running a monthly time series regression with stock return of firm as a dependent variable and independent variables are exchange rate changes and market portfolio return. all variables are stationary.
It is well known that the one of the assumptions of regression is that the errors should be normally distributed.

My query is whether the individual variables or series should also be normally distributed in time series regression. What if the errors are not normally distributed in time series regression and all other residual test like LM serial correlation and ARCH are OK.

Please help.

startz
Non-normality and collinearity are NOT problems!
Posts: 3797
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2008 2:25 pm

Re: Normality of variables in time series regression

Postby startz » Mon Jul 21, 2014 6:33 am

Hi

...
It is well known that the one of the assumptions of regression is that the errors should be normally distributed.
No it isn't. The Gauss-Markov theorem does not require normal errors. The only place that normal errors matters is for small sample distribution of the coefficients being normal.
My query is whether the individual variables or series should also be normally distributed in time series regression. What if the errors are not normally distributed in time series regression and all other residual test like LM serial correlation and ARCH are OK.
The series being normal is irrelevant for everything. Asymptotic test statistics do not require normality.
If deviations from normality are very large, then one does need a larger sample than otherwise for asymptotic theory to kick in.

EktaS
Posts: 16
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 4:45 am

Re: Normality of variables in time series regression

Postby EktaS » Tue Jul 22, 2014 5:12 am

Thanks a lot for reply.


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