trend stationary and difference stationary

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shevchenko62
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon May 03, 2010 5:57 pm

trend stationary and difference stationary

Postby shevchenko62 » Mon May 10, 2010 8:00 am

I have few 4 time series data: stock price, M2, CPI and interest rates.
M2, CPI and interest rates are all I(1).
As for stock price, it is non-stationary, but it seems like having deterministic trend. After detrending and running ADF on level with intercept on residual data, it is showing stationarity. My questions are
1) Is stock price considered I(1)? Am I right to run ADF on level with intercept only on the residual after detrending? What is the significance of the result of ADF on level which is showing stationarity?
2) can M2, CPI, interest rate and stock price be examined using cointegration?

startz
Non-normality and collinearity are NOT problems!
Posts: 3797
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2008 2:25 pm

Re: trend stationary and difference stationary

Postby startz » Mon May 10, 2010 9:13 am

Stock price is the classic
example of an I(1) series

shevchenko62
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon May 03, 2010 5:57 pm

Re: trend stationary and difference stationary

Postby shevchenko62 » Mon May 10, 2010 4:15 pm

The stock price that I use is a finance index after applying natural logarithmic. I just found out that M2 also has similar attributes whereby it seems to have deterministic trend. It is non stationary at level. But showing some up trend. After detrending, I run ADF (intercept only) and it is showing stationarity now. How can I proceed with cointegration or can I proceed with cointegration actually?



I suppose I need to look at the trend coefficient (@TREND)to determine if it is significant to determine if it has deterministic trend right? what is the value of @TREND that is deemed significant?


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