Forecasting with Exp Smoothing Models

[bcdm3w]

Hello! I have quarterly data for 2004-2008 and I have to forecast 2009 Q1-Q4. I am supposed to use Winter's Multiplicative and Additive Seasonality.

I was able to get those results, but whenever I run it again, I can't seem to get values/forecasts for 2009. I saw a topic on this problem somewhere on this forum and I did everything it asked, and included 2009 Q1, 2009 Q2, 2009 Q3, and 2009 Q4 dates. I re-ran it, and I still get 'NA' next to the observations.

I have attached it in case it helps.

Thank you so much.

[EViews Gareth]

Make sure you do the smoothing, using an estimation period that ends in 2008:4. Then it will forecast all the periods after that time.

[bcdm3w]

I tried this but I still keep getting NA. :(

[EViews Gareth]

See steps below:

Step 1

ES1.png (151.74 KiB) Viewed 4899 times

Step 2

ES2.png (138.95 KiB) Viewed 4897 times

Step 3

ES3.png (130.93 KiB) Viewed 4897 times

[bcdm3w]

I have the student version, and when I typethat code in, it says, "@MAE is an illegal or reserved name" :(. Does it matter that I have Eviews 6 and not 7?



Thank you so much for your help! I really appreciate you taking the time to respond.

[EViews Gareth]

@MAE was introduced in EViews 7.