Substituting the arma estimation coefficient

For technical questions regarding estimation of single equations, systems, VARs, Factor analysis and State Space Models in EViews. General econometric questions and advice should go in the Econometric Discussions forum.

Moderators: EViews Gareth, EViews Moderator

amb.godwin
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2016 12:47 am

Substituting the arma estimation coefficient

Postby amb.godwin » Mon Jun 13, 2016 1:48 am

Hi every one,
I am not very good in forecasting time series with Eviews. I have tried to estimate the arma (1, 1) processes with EVIEWS7 using consumer price index data. I got C = 0.006031, coefficient of AR(1) = 0.542517 and coefficient of MA (1) = -0.987227. When I view the substituted coefficients I got this:
Y2 = 0.00603083986741 + [AR(1)=0.542516703427,MA(1)=-0.98722692096]. Now how should I interpret this to reflect the reality on the data from actual, fitted and residual table. For example the following are actual results from my table (Please see the attachment below):

I have tried to use: Y2 = C + (0.542516703427 * ar1) + ( -0.98722692096 * resid)
Still DO not provides true results.

Where am mistaking? How should I put my equation above so that when I compute I got the true values of fitted model.
According to my series, I found stationarity is obtained at first order difference so in my equation specification window I used: d(yseries) c ar(1) ma(1)

Thank you for your time.
Attachments
actual_fitted_residual.png
actual_fitted_residual.png (46 KiB) Viewed 3925 times

EViews Gareth
Fe ddaethom, fe welon, fe amcangyfrifon
Posts: 13604
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:38 pm

Re: Substituting the arma estimation coefficient

Postby EViews Gareth » Mon Jun 13, 2016 1:50 am

Not really sure what you're asking.

amb.godwin
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2016 12:47 am

Re: Substituting the arma estimation coefficient

Postby amb.godwin » Mon Jun 13, 2016 2:00 am

Not really sure what you're asking.
Thank Gareth, what I mean is: How should I substitute the coefficients of arma (1,1) to the equation ?

EViews Gareth
Fe ddaethom, fe welon, fe amcangyfrifon
Posts: 13604
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:38 pm

Re: Substituting the arma estimation coefficient

Postby EViews Gareth » Mon Jun 13, 2016 2:04 am

That doesn't really make any sense.

startz
Non-normality and collinearity are NOT problems!
Posts: 3797
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2008 2:25 pm

Re: Substituting the arma estimation coefficient

Postby startz » Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:59 am

Are you trying to forecast?


Return to “Estimation”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests