Forecasting with GMM

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henriqueld
Posts: 19
Joined: Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:16 am

Forecasting with GMM

Postby henriqueld » Thu Feb 05, 2015 12:08 pm

Good afternoon!

I have used GMM to estimate a Phillips Curve in Eviews 8. When I try to forecast though, I get only one observation (the last one from my sample)! I have data up until 2014Q1, so that´s up until when I get the "forecasts". What can I do to get real forecasts beyond 2014Q1??

Thanks!

EViews Gareth
Fe ddaethom, fe welon, fe amcangyfrifon
Posts: 13604
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:38 pm

Re: Forecasting with GMM

Postby EViews Gareth » Thu Feb 05, 2015 12:33 pm

Post your workfile.

henriqueld
Posts: 19
Joined: Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:16 am

Re: Forecasting with GMM

Postby henriqueld » Thu Feb 05, 2015 12:41 pm

I can't. The file is too heavy. What I'm estimating through a new system is:

dlog(ipca_livres) = cp(10)*log(1+expected_inflation) + cp(21)*dlog(ipca(-1)) + cp(30)*d(lcrb) + (1-cp(10)-cp(21)-cp(30))*d(lcrb(-1)) + cp(40)*lhiato + cp(50)*d(loil_oil_hp) + cp(61)*(lipa_ipca(-1)-lipa_ipca_hp(-1)) + cp(71)*q1 + cp(72)*q2 + cp(73)*q3 + cp(74)*q4 + cp(80)*crise

@inst lhiato(-4 to -8) lcrb(-1 to -4) loil_oil_hp(0 to -4) ipca(-1 to -4) expected_inflation(-1 to -4) ltbill(0 to -8) lvix(0 to -8)

Is it possible to get forecasts beyond the range of the data?

EViews Gareth
Fe ddaethom, fe welon, fe amcangyfrifon
Posts: 13604
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:38 pm

Re: Forecasting with GMM

Postby EViews Gareth » Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:10 pm

Impossible to say without seeing the workfile.


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