Time series regression/ARDL

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vjk
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 3:55 am

Time series regression/ARDL

Postby vjk » Mon Apr 21, 2014 4:08 am

I will try and keep this as short as possible...I am a bit of a novice with stats as well, so bear with me!

I'm looking at the effects of government expenditure on economic growth, total factor productivity specifically, but only during a recession, so I have a very small sample size.I am running a regression with one dependant variable (TFP) and one independent variable (expenditure). As the title says I am using time series data.Originally I just did a linear regression, but then was worried about my variables being nonstationary as well as having no cointegration,causing spurious correlation. I then ended up having to take first differences to satisfy the augmented Dicky-Fuller statistic. My textbook then stated that I should take the first differences and use the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model for my estimation. I then spent hours scouring the internet and Eviews, trying to find out how to compute it as well as trying to decide how many lags to use. I then began reading my textbook page by page (which was torture!), when I realised all of the examples in the book have at least 2 independent variables...

My questions are: do I still have to use the ARDL model with only one independent variable? If yes, does anyone know to do this in Eviews, and even if you don't, how do I find out how many lags to use ?
Tl;dr Can you use the ARDL model with only one x variable and a very small sample size?

olayenidynare
Posts: 6
Joined: Tue Mar 18, 2014 10:48 am

Re: Time series regression/ARDL

Postby olayenidynare » Mon Apr 21, 2014 7:06 am

You may visit this blog
http://davegiles.blogspot.com/2013/06/a ... tests.html

Hope it helps


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