Univariate Forecast

[mark.viduka]

Hi Guys,

I am having some difficulties estimating a univariate equation. I was not able to write down the formula here, so i have uploaded it in the file attached.

Essentially, in equation (1), the dependent variable is output, and independent variables are an autoregression of the dependent variable and the Termspread and Federal Funds Rate.

The data is all monthly figures, which is why in equation (2) a scaling constant (c) is used which is equal to 1200. I need to make a forecast h=12 (so 12 months ahead).

What i have done is substituted, c=1200 and h=12 into equation (2), and ran this under generate on eviews.

I then ran equation (1) as an OLS regression. However my results look very strange, could someone please help me as to what am i supposed to do?

Mark