I am examing if there is a cointegrating relationhip based on the Engle-Granger approach between EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency series. Applying the ADF test in the log-price and log-return series I found out that the level series are both I(1). Then I regressed the logeuro levels on the loggbp levels. Applying the ADF test (with constant but not trend) on the residuals estimated from the regression, I get the following output:
Null Hypothesis: RESID01 has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=21)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.025600 0.0329
Test critical values: 1% level -3.435957
5% level -2.863904
10% level -2.568079
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
1st question: Are the above critical values the ones I must use for the rejection of the null hypothesis? I believe there is another set of critical values when we test for the stationarity on the residuals of an estimated LR model. Where can I found this set?
2nd question: Should I regress the loggbp levels on the logeur levels? Doing that and applying the ADF test on the estimated residuals I get:
Null Hypothesis: RESID02 has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=21)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.079654 0.0284
Test critical values: 1% level -3.435957
5% level -2.863904
10% level -2.568079
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
3rd question: From an economical point of view is it logical the two time series to cointegrate (ie have a long run relationship)?
4th question: If the two series are cointegrated how can we estimate the ECM (error correction model)? I believe that the ECM model is: dlogeur=b0+b1*dloggbp+b2*RESID(-1). Does this model captures the long-run relationship between the series as well as the short-run relationship? What is the interpretation of the coefficients b1 and b2?
cointegration between currencies
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Re: cointegration between currencies
To answer just the first question, yes there is a different set of critical values. The built-in Engle-Granger test from a group object performs the relevant regression and test computation.
Re: cointegration between currencies
I believe this set of critical values is the one tabulated by MacKinnon: Critical Values for Cointegration TestsTo answer just the first question, yes there is a different set of critical values. The built-in Engle-Granger test from a group object performs the relevant regression and test computation.
Using these critical values the null hypothesis cannot be rejected so the residuals are not stationary and thus the two series are not cointegrated.
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