RMSE for random walk

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muzolf
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Joined: Tue Nov 27, 2012 2:57 pm

RMSE for random walk

Postby muzolf » Tue Nov 27, 2012 3:03 pm

I am trying to compare performance of a random walk and different models in predicting exchange rates in out of sample testing. I have trouble creating the random walk:
I have created a random walk series using : y=y(-1) + NRND
Now I need to obtain RMSE of the forecast using the random walk. How do I progress? I need to somehow put into into an estimation but not sure what the specification should look like

Regards
K

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