please help me in interpreting cointegration result

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walaa
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Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 6:34 am

please help me in interpreting cointegration result

Postby walaa » Tue Apr 03, 2012 7:01 am

please i need help:
ineed to interpret this result
im a biginnerin using econometrics and eviews and i need that help as soon as possible thanks in advance,

VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria
Endogenous variables: CS INF
Exogenous variables: C
Sample: 1991 2010
Included observations: 16


Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ


0 -76.50915 NA 62.69089 9.813644 9.910218 9.818589
1 -68.22936 13.45467* 37.03616* 9.278670* 9.568391* 9.293506*
2 -65.65471 3.540136 45.80253 9.456839 9.939707 9.481566
3 -64.49659 1.302887 71.01273 9.812074 10.48809 9.846691
4 -61.59195 2.541560 96.46412 9.948994 10.81816 9.993502


* indicates lag order selected by the criterion
LR: sequential modified LR test statistic (each test at 5% level)
FPE: Final prediction error
AIC: Akaike information criterion
SC: Schwarz information criterion
HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion


Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)


Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**


None * 0.521059 16.68035 15.49471 0.0330
At most 1 0.173461 3.429139 3.841466 0.0641


Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)


Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**


None 0.521059 13.25121 14.26460 0.0718
At most 1 0.173461 3.429139 3.841466 0.0641


Max-eigenvalue test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):


CS INF
-0.830208 0.053480
0.002332 -0.261586



Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):


D(CS) 0.745151 -0.374966
D(INF) 1.994239 1.100099



1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -74.18025


Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
CS INF
1.000000 -0.064418
(0.08069)

Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(CS) -0.618630
(0.25501)
D(INF) -1.655633
(0.72350)




Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 04/03/12 Time: 14:20
Sample: 1991 2010
Lags: 1


Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob.


INF does not Granger Cause CS 19 11.9674 0.0032
CS does not Granger Cause INF 4.64435 0.0467

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