LogL estimation - "Failure to improve Likelihood"

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CharlesLogan
Posts: 12
Joined: Fri Dec 17, 2010 3:31 pm

LogL estimation - "Failure to improve Likelihood"

Postby CharlesLogan » Fri Jan 07, 2011 8:28 am

Greetings:

I am estimating coefficients via the LogL object in Eviews. More often than not, I get the error message:

"Failure to improve Likelihood after X iterations
WARNING: Singular covariance - coefficients are not unique"

However, if I simply re-start the MLE estimation and not changing the coefficients, it subsequently converges.

Is there a way to avoid this error and have the MLE re-start in a similar fashion to my manual method?

Thanks!

EViews Gareth
Fe ddaethom, fe welon, fe amcangyfrifon
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Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:38 pm

LogL estimation - "Failure to improve Likelihood"

Postby EViews Gareth » Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:40 pm

Try tightening the convergence tolerance.

CharlesLogan
Posts: 12
Joined: Fri Dec 17, 2010 3:31 pm

Re: LogL estimation - "Failure to improve Likelihood"

Postby CharlesLogan » Fri Jan 07, 2011 2:50 pm

That did not work. I originally set the convergence threshold to 1e-5 and tightened it to several values leading down to 1e-50 and still get the singular covariance error.

EViews Glenn
EViews Developer
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Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:17 am

Re: LogL estimation - "Failure to improve Likelihood"

Postby EViews Glenn » Mon Jan 10, 2011 10:38 am

It sounds as though there is a singularity at the root of the likelihood equation at which we are evaluating the standard errors. In likelihood estimation, this is akin to multicollinearity...

There is a possibility that you may get better results at a different root, but at least numerically, we are finding a singularity. You might want to try to experiment with different starting values.

CharlesLogan
Posts: 12
Joined: Fri Dec 17, 2010 3:31 pm

Re: LogL estimation - "Failure to improve Likelihood"

Postby CharlesLogan » Wed Jan 12, 2011 10:05 am

When I get these singularity errors, I simply re-execute the "ml" method on my LogL object without changing any of the coefficients or parameters to the ml method.
Oftentimes, the MLE will subsequently converge. It takes a substantial amount of time to sit by the computer and keep re-executing the 'ml' command when the estimation fails. Is there a way to tell Eviews re-execute this 'ml' command upon an error, up to N times? This will be a tremendous time saver. For example, I would like to have Eviews re-estimate the 'ml' command on each LogL object up to 10 times before giving up.

EViews Glenn
EViews Developer
Posts: 2682
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:17 am

Re: LogL estimation - "Failure to improve Likelihood"

Postby EViews Glenn » Wed Jan 12, 2011 1:09 pm

If the error is a singularity so that you have NAs as standard errors, you could certainly put the estimation inside a loop where you test for NA values and reestimate if encountered. That would be pretty straightforward. You could even modify the coefficients slightly using a random number generator.


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