Unable to Forecast. Kindly Help
Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2014 3:20 am
Hello team,
I am new to Eview, doin a independent project (Projct: Determinants of FDI) for learning purpose.
I have taken panel data(13 observations) of various independent variables:"GDP, Foreign exchange, WPI, Electricity generation, Crudeoil, Taxrate, Inflation,External Debt,Exchange Rate,Interest rate" and my Dependent Variable is "FDI".
I have made the variables stationary by taking Log , 1st difference and 2nd Difference. Found 2nd difference of all variables to be more stationary by comparing Correlogram and Unit test for all 3 scenario.
Hence, I have estimated equation using 2nd difference. Output was satisfying Normality and Heteroskedasticity test but not Serial Correlation test
Error: insignificant Degree of Freedom for lags=2 , If I Reduce lag to "1" ,then it rejects Null hypothesis.
I read somewhere that the only way to tackle this error is by reducing variables, changing no of Observations or adding lag.
Hence 1) I added lag of Dependent Variable (FDI(-1)) to remove the error but no satisfactory output.
2)I reduced the no. of variables(had to omit important variables like GDP), output was satisfying all conditions(serial correlation,heteroskedasticity and normality).Here I tried to find the Root mean sqaure error was very high (165, desired being 2).
Kindly suggest where am I going Wrong.
I am new to Eview, doin a independent project (Projct: Determinants of FDI) for learning purpose.
I have taken panel data(13 observations) of various independent variables:"GDP, Foreign exchange, WPI, Electricity generation, Crudeoil, Taxrate, Inflation,External Debt,Exchange Rate,Interest rate" and my Dependent Variable is "FDI".
I have made the variables stationary by taking Log , 1st difference and 2nd Difference. Found 2nd difference of all variables to be more stationary by comparing Correlogram and Unit test for all 3 scenario.
Hence, I have estimated equation using 2nd difference. Output was satisfying Normality and Heteroskedasticity test but not Serial Correlation test
Error: insignificant Degree of Freedom for lags=2 , If I Reduce lag to "1" ,then it rejects Null hypothesis.
I read somewhere that the only way to tackle this error is by reducing variables, changing no of Observations or adding lag.
Hence 1) I added lag of Dependent Variable (FDI(-1)) to remove the error but no satisfactory output.
2)I reduced the no. of variables(had to omit important variables like GDP), output was satisfying all conditions(serial correlation,heteroskedasticity and normality).Here I tried to find the Root mean sqaure error was very high (165, desired being 2).
Kindly suggest where am I going Wrong.