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Estimating Multivariate TVTP Markov Switching model
Posted: Sat Oct 26, 2013 1:42 am
by sohansust
Dear All,
I am trying to estimate a multivariate markov switching model where the transition probabilities will be estimated with Filardo's (1998) procedure.
To more elaborate Filardo (1998) choose a information variables for transition probabilities. I want to use Composite leading Indication (CLI) as a information variable.
Note that I have Eviews 8 but here it estimates AR as a independent variable.
Thnaks
Re: Estimating Multivariate TVTP Markov Switching model
Posted: Mon Oct 28, 2013 9:48 am
by EViews Glenn
You'll have to be more specific about the Filardo paper to which you refer and the model in question.
Re: Estimating Multivariate TVTP Markov Switching model
Posted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 5:30 am
by sohansust
You'll have to be more specific about the Filardo paper to which you refer and the model in question.
Thanks for your reply.
I have used the explanatory variables on List of non-switching regressor and it worked.
thanks
Re: Estimating Multivariate TVTP Markov Switching model
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 4:56 am
by sohansust
Dear Glenn,
Now I am facing the convergence problem.
I run the model once and found convergence, but when I run the same model the following day, it say' convergence not achieved after certain iteration'.
How would I solve the problem?
Please help.
Re: Estimating Multivariate TVTP Markov Switching model
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 7:38 am
by startz
You probably have different starting values for the parameters the second time you run it.
Re: Estimating Multivariate TVTP Markov Switching model
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 12:11 pm
by trubador
Startz is right. By default, EViews uses random search for initial values. You can either choose "User supplied" option as the starting method or save/specify the "Seed" value of random number generator for further use. I'd like to remind you that the estimation of time varying transition probabilities requires a thorough examination of the model, since it is not easy to find a robust specification.
Re: Estimating Multivariate TVTP Markov Switching model
Posted: Tue Jan 07, 2014 6:26 am
by sohansust
Startz is right. By default, EViews uses random search for initial values. You can either choose "User supplied" option as the starting method or save/specify the "Seed" value of random number generator for further use. I'd like to remind you that the estimation of time varying transition probabilities requires a thorough examination of the model, since it is not easy to find a robust specification.
Thank Trubador and Startz,
But If I change the initial value, will be the estimated parameter be the same?
I tried and found a slight difference in parameter. Can you give me some reference, if possible, for the robust specification of TVTP model?
Thanks
Sohansust
Re: Estimating Multivariate TVTP Markov Switching model
Posted: Tue Jan 07, 2014 8:18 am
by trubador
This is an optimization model with too many local roots. So you do not have to worry about the differences in results as long as they are within the convergence tolerance. If you want to fix the solution, you can try the suggestions that I made in my previous post.
Re: Estimating Multivariate TVTP Markov Switching model
Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 3:30 am
by mse
Hello,
This is probably a stupid question, but I'd like to clarify how to set the User defined initial values of the parameters.
I try to estimate a markov switching model with two regimes, switching constant and sigma and a non-switching lag.
The output that I get is:
Code: Select all
Dependent Variable: PC
Method: Switching Regression (Markov Switching)
Date: 06/06/14 Time: 11:59
Sample (adjusted): 1993M07 2013M10
Included observations: 244 after adjustments
Number of states: 2
Initial probabilities obtained from ergodic solution
Ordinary standard errors & covariance using numeric Hessian
Convergence achieved after 20 iterations
Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.
Regime 1
C 1.225047 0.214160 5.720233 0.0000
LOG(SIGMA) 0.402751 0.076826 5.242350 0.0000
Regime 2
C -1.524567 0.322153 -4.732426 0.0000
LOG(SIGMA) 0.752415 0.079126 9.509030 0.0000
Common
PC(-2) 0.868448 0.025987 33.41805 0.0000
Transition Matrix Parameters
P11-C 2.810124 0.463121 6.067793 0.0000
P21-C -2.375720 0.462287 -5.139060 0.0000
Mean dependent var 0.104078 S.D. dependent var 5.892272
S.E. of regression 1.948373 Sum squared resid 907.2817
Durbin-Watson stat 1.303704 Log likelihood -507.5203
Akaike info criterion 4.217379 Schwarz criterion 4.317708
Hannan-Quinn criter. 4.257786
Then, when I switch to Representations to know the names of the parameters I see that the constant and and the lag parameter have the same name.
Code: Select all
Estimation Command:
=========================
SWITCHREG(TYPE=MARKOV,HETERR,S) PC C @NV PC(-2)
Estimation Equation:
=========================
1: PC = C(1) + C(3)*PC(-2)
1: SIGMA = @EXP(C(2))
2: PC = C(3) + C(3)*PC(-2)
2: SIGMA = @EXP(C(4))
Substituted Coefficients:
=========================
1: PC = 1.22504665939 - 1.52456652777*PC(-2)
1: SIGMA = @EXP(0.402750911969)
2: PC = -1.52456652777 - 1.52456652777*PC(-2)
2: SIGMA = @EXP(0.752415464536)
I hope that this error is present in the representations window only.
Still, how should I call the parameters to initialize them?
Thanks
Re: Estimating Multivariate TVTP Markov Switching model
Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 8:36 am
by EViews Glenn
Looks like an error in the representations view. We'll take a look.
[edit] I'm not seeing the reported behavior in the representations view. Can you tell me the date on your version of EViews? And perhaps post the workfile with the equation in question.
Code: Select all
Estimation Equation:
=========================
1: G = C(1) + C(5)*G(-2)
1: SIGMA = @EXP(C(2))
2: G = C(3) + C(5)*G(-2)
2: SIGMA = @EXP(C(4))