Vector Autoregression-Conditional Forecasting
Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2009 12:36 am
Hi,
I have a doublt. Hope you will be able to help me. I am writing the steps. But, I am not so sure whether it is right?
Conditional forecasts:
(a) Make a model of the VAR
Ans: let's say there are 3 varialbes IP, M1, TB3. Do the var regression and solve the model. Save it as base scenario.
(b) Delete the equation for Money Supply (M1) from the model=Make the money supply exogenous
Ans: Simply right click and delete it in eviews so that in variable window it would show exogenous
(c) Solve the model in sample
Ans: Then solve the model with the remaining two variables
(d) Create new scenario
Ans: Now in view windwow will click scenario and will select scenario1
(e) Increase money supply by 10% (in comparison
to baseline) in period 2000Q1 to 2006Q4
Ans: Now I will increase the money supply by 10 %
M1=M1*1.10 (in the override window and subsequently in the command window genr M1=M1*1.10)
(f) Solve the model in that scenario
Ans: Now I will solve the system. Here lies my doubt. While solving I will solve taking all the equations or still M3 is exogenous that means I will solve the two equations. How to do that in eview? I am confused.
Please help.
Aryan
I have a doublt. Hope you will be able to help me. I am writing the steps. But, I am not so sure whether it is right?
Conditional forecasts:
(a) Make a model of the VAR
Ans: let's say there are 3 varialbes IP, M1, TB3. Do the var regression and solve the model. Save it as base scenario.
(b) Delete the equation for Money Supply (M1) from the model=Make the money supply exogenous
Ans: Simply right click and delete it in eviews so that in variable window it would show exogenous
(c) Solve the model in sample
Ans: Then solve the model with the remaining two variables
(d) Create new scenario
Ans: Now in view windwow will click scenario and will select scenario1
(e) Increase money supply by 10% (in comparison
to baseline) in period 2000Q1 to 2006Q4
Ans: Now I will increase the money supply by 10 %
M1=M1*1.10 (in the override window and subsequently in the command window genr M1=M1*1.10)
(f) Solve the model in that scenario
Ans: Now I will solve the system. Here lies my doubt. While solving I will solve taking all the equations or still M3 is exogenous that means I will solve the two equations. How to do that in eview? I am confused.
Please help.
Aryan