Trouble Interpreting Johansen Cointegration

[willace207]

Hello...
I'm an undergraduate student and now i'm writing my undergraduate thesis, it's about tea market market efficiency in grade level and my advisor suggest to use VAR model to analyze it, but i have difficulties in interpreting the Johansen Cointegration Test (Because i haven't studied about VAR and Economectric till now, i only studied basic statictics), So I need a little help in interpreting the result, the output from the test show like this;

Date: 06/13/11 Time: 22:26
Sample (adjusted): 3 94
Included observations: 92 after adjustments
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend
Series: LOG(JTA) LOG(CTA) LOG(MTA)
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)


Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**


None 0.148983 29.76459 29.79707 0.0504
At most 1 0.105376 14.92283 15.49471 0.0608
At most 2 * 0.049582 4.678485 3.841466 0.0305


Trace test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

The test indicated no cointegration, but at 'At most 2' the Probability (P-value) is lower than 0.05. Should I use VECM, or should I continue with VAR Model based on the result ?
Any help would be appriciated

Thanks