dynamic forecast
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2011 2:18 am
Hello,
My name is Raquel. I am trying to forecast the CPI (ipc in Spanish). I find that the forecasted value of the CPI in 1996m05 by forecasting from 1996m03 to 1996m05 (I understand: from 1 to 3 months ahead) using:
smpl 1991m01 1996m02
equation eq.ls d(log(ipc)-log(ipc(-12))) c ma(12) sma(12)
smpl 1996m03 1996m05
' cpi forecasts from 1 to 3 months ahead
forecast ipcforecast
is different that the forecasted value in 1996m05 by forecasting from 1996m05 to 1996m05 (I guess: forecast 3 month ahead) using:
smpl 1991m01 1996m02
equation eq.ls d(log(ipc)-log(ipc(-12))) c ma(12) sma(12)
smpl 1996m05 1996m05
' cpi forecasts 3 months ahead
forecast ipcforecast
What is the right programming I should use to produce forecasts 3 months ahead?
Thank you in advance for any help you can provide.
Raquel
My name is Raquel. I am trying to forecast the CPI (ipc in Spanish). I find that the forecasted value of the CPI in 1996m05 by forecasting from 1996m03 to 1996m05 (I understand: from 1 to 3 months ahead) using:
smpl 1991m01 1996m02
equation eq.ls d(log(ipc)-log(ipc(-12))) c ma(12) sma(12)
smpl 1996m03 1996m05
' cpi forecasts from 1 to 3 months ahead
forecast ipcforecast
is different that the forecasted value in 1996m05 by forecasting from 1996m05 to 1996m05 (I guess: forecast 3 month ahead) using:
smpl 1991m01 1996m02
equation eq.ls d(log(ipc)-log(ipc(-12))) c ma(12) sma(12)
smpl 1996m05 1996m05
' cpi forecasts 3 months ahead
forecast ipcforecast
What is the right programming I should use to produce forecasts 3 months ahead?
Thank you in advance for any help you can provide.
Raquel