Kalman Filter and State Space Definition
Posted: Mon Jan 26, 2009 8:22 am
I am trying to run a time-varying stock beta model.
I define a measurement equation without constant since I use returns over risk free rate both for the stock and the market index. my measurement equation is as follows:
rex_stock = beta*rex_market + error term
I define want to define state equation (beta) as a random walk, therefore I input rex_market in the "random walk coefficients box" in the second tab (stochastic regressors) of the auto-specification menu.
Therefore in the specification text I end up with:
@signal rex_stock = sv1*rex_market + [var = exp(c(1))]
@state sv1 = sv1(-1) + [var = exp(c(2))]
and when I estimate this I get a WARNING message saying "singular covariance - coefficients are not unique" BUT the final state value of the beta is pretty much OK.
when instead modify the state equation and get rid of the error term "[var = exp(c(2))]", and define state equation as @state sv1=sv1(-1) the error message disappears, but the thing is I want to define state equation as a random walk process.
What may be the problem?
I define a measurement equation without constant since I use returns over risk free rate both for the stock and the market index. my measurement equation is as follows:
rex_stock = beta*rex_market + error term
I define want to define state equation (beta) as a random walk, therefore I input rex_market in the "random walk coefficients box" in the second tab (stochastic regressors) of the auto-specification menu.
Therefore in the specification text I end up with:
@signal rex_stock = sv1*rex_market + [var = exp(c(1))]
@state sv1 = sv1(-1) + [var = exp(c(2))]
and when I estimate this I get a WARNING message saying "singular covariance - coefficients are not unique" BUT the final state value of the beta is pretty much OK.
when instead modify the state equation and get rid of the error term "[var = exp(c(2))]", and define state equation as @state sv1=sv1(-1) the error message disappears, but the thing is I want to define state equation as a random walk process.
What may be the problem?