Forecasting a recession using a probit model. Please help!
Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 12:09 pm
Hi,
I am quite new to eviews and I am not really econometrically educated.
I have quite a few variables and a US recession indicator indicating 1 for a recession and 0 otherwise.
Now I want to make a predictive model using these variables.
I will add my data in an attachment.
If you are really interested I want to do the same thing as Estrella and Mishkin, 1998 (Predicting US recessions: Financial variables as leading indicators) or more simply as Peter Sephton does in the added PDF file.
Hopefully somebody can help me, I am really stuck.
I am quite new to eviews and I am not really econometrically educated.
I have quite a few variables and a US recession indicator indicating 1 for a recession and 0 otherwise.
Now I want to make a predictive model using these variables.
I will add my data in an attachment.
If you are really interested I want to do the same thing as Estrella and Mishkin, 1998 (Predicting US recessions: Financial variables as leading indicators) or more simply as Peter Sephton does in the added PDF file.
Hopefully somebody can help me, I am really stuck.