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Univariate Bayesian Estimation

Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2024 2:40 am
by EF00
Dear all,
is it possible to implement a bayesian approach for a univariate estimation model? How?

Re: Univariate Bayesian Estimation

Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2024 9:36 am
by EViews Gareth
There is nothing built in to do it. Yet...

Re: Univariate Bayesian Estimation

Posted: Tue Dec 03, 2024 4:22 am
by EF00
That's okay. Alternatively, how can I manage different time windows? How can I identify them? For example, how can I handle COVID-19 shocks that might affect the estimation of coefficients in a model and the forecasting results?

Re: Univariate Bayesian Estimation

Posted: Tue Dec 03, 2024 10:27 am
by startz
Can you be more specific? You can control the estimation window or forecast window with the

Code: Select all

smpl
command.

Re: Univariate Bayesian Estimation

Posted: Wed Dec 04, 2024 2:56 am
by EF00
For example, although EViews is not specifically designed for Bayesian models, is it possible to implement a "simplified version" of dynamic linear models using state-space structures and the Kalman filter? How?

Re: Univariate Bayesian Estimation

Posted: Wed Dec 04, 2024 4:11 am
by EF00
What I want is to obtain accurate estimates of the coefficients of my equation, which might be influenced by external phenomena.

Re: Univariate Bayesian Estimation

Posted: Wed Dec 04, 2024 8:54 am
by startz
If you want to exclude the pandemic you could set the estimation to be something like

Code: Select all

smpl 1899 2019 2023 2034
Alternatively, you might include a dummy variable that is set to 1.0 during the pandemic.