Only lagged dependent variable in ARDL long run equation and forecasting
Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2024 2:16 pm
Hello,
I've been trying to use an ARDL regression on Eviews 13 in order to obtain the long run relationship for my variables.
The problem is that in my long run equation I only obtain the lagged dependent variable with some lagged and non lagged independent variables. Example :
EC = Y(-1) - (a1*X1 + a2*X2(-1) + a3*X3(-1))
1- how can I repair this and obtain an EC equation for Y (with no lag)? And how to explain this if I must keep this equation especially when the dependent is lagged and the independent is not lagged. (like we explain the past by a future variable?? So weird!)
2- EXTRA question and does anyone has an idea for extracting directly only the long run relationship without any other Least Square Regression in order to forecast?
I've been trying to use an ARDL regression on Eviews 13 in order to obtain the long run relationship for my variables.
The problem is that in my long run equation I only obtain the lagged dependent variable with some lagged and non lagged independent variables. Example :
EC = Y(-1) - (a1*X1 + a2*X2(-1) + a3*X3(-1))
1- how can I repair this and obtain an EC equation for Y (with no lag)? And how to explain this if I must keep this equation especially when the dependent is lagged and the independent is not lagged. (like we explain the past by a future variable?? So weird!)
2- EXTRA question and does anyone has an idea for extracting directly only the long run relationship without any other Least Square Regression in order to forecast?