End of period mean in Holt - Winter exponential smoothing
Posted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 12:53 am
When I do exponential smoothing a series using Holt method, I see that the last smoothed value is different from what called the "end of period mean".
In EVIEWS, The next forecasted values are actually equal to (end of period mean + h*end of period trend)
The method that I learn provides the formula to calculate forecasted value like this (last smoothed value + h* last value of trend)
So, why is there the difference between the two values in EVIEWS? What actually is the "end of period mean"?
In EVIEWS, The next forecasted values are actually equal to (end of period mean + h*end of period trend)
The method that I learn provides the formula to calculate forecasted value like this (last smoothed value + h* last value of trend)
So, why is there the difference between the two values in EVIEWS? What actually is the "end of period mean"?