how to forecast GARCH updating the estimated values in each time
Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:52 am
good morning, I need some help.
I am trying to get Eviews to do the following:
I have estimated my regression using GARCH with data from 2006 until 2017.
to prove the existence of the day of the week effect I am forecasting the returns from 2017 January until 2017 December to compare the average errors of the forecast with the actuals.
to make this exercise fair, I need to update the estimation of the coefficients every new day that is forecast
I mean:
to forecast January 1 2017 I used the estimates up until 31 December 2016
to forecast January 2 2017 I used the estimates up until 1 January 2017
and so on.
at the beginning I thought I could use the static forecast tool, but then I realise that I the coefficients would be using the data until December 2017 to be calculated, and that is not efficient or accurate.
to do this I need to change the parameters of the estimation to include the next day each time,
my specific question is:
is t there a way I can do this programing Eviews to do it automatically and not having to do it one by one.
bare in mind that I have to do it 252 times minimum to complete a hole year of comparison.
thank you
I am trying to get Eviews to do the following:
I have estimated my regression using GARCH with data from 2006 until 2017.
to prove the existence of the day of the week effect I am forecasting the returns from 2017 January until 2017 December to compare the average errors of the forecast with the actuals.
to make this exercise fair, I need to update the estimation of the coefficients every new day that is forecast
I mean:
to forecast January 1 2017 I used the estimates up until 31 December 2016
to forecast January 2 2017 I used the estimates up until 1 January 2017
and so on.
at the beginning I thought I could use the static forecast tool, but then I realise that I the coefficients would be using the data until December 2017 to be calculated, and that is not efficient or accurate.
to do this I need to change the parameters of the estimation to include the next day each time,
my specific question is:
is t there a way I can do this programing Eviews to do it automatically and not having to do it one by one.
bare in mind that I have to do it 252 times minimum to complete a hole year of comparison.
thank you