VECM

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j235
Posts: 14
Joined: Mon Oct 24, 2016 9:24 am

VECM

Postby j235 » Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:10 am

I am calculating VECM. In this model I am using three variables (x,y,z). Here for me most important is variable X because lately am planing to make forecasting with equation for this variable. With Y and Z i don't have plan to making forecast. After performing VECM I got significant values for X in first equation (e.g EC is negative and significant,R-square is around 0,8 , F-statistics is significant, no serial correlations, normal residuals etc.) but I don't have significant results for second equations for Y, and third equations for Z.

What should I do ? Does I should fix other two equations for Y and Z ? or I can make good forecasting only with first equation ?

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