Markov Switching model with logistic transition probabilities
Posted: Thu Nov 17, 2016 10:59 am
Hi
I want to estimate a MS model with two states for volatility:
Vol=a*Vol(-1)+e, where a can be high or low depending on the state. See eq1 in the WF
Then I want the transition probabilities to depend on lagged market depth (Depth(-1)). P governs the transition probability during normal time (low a) and Q during stress periods (high a), I want both P and Q to follow a logistic distribution but with different parameters:
P(depth(-1))=[exp(theta0+theta1*depth(-1))/(1+exp(theta0+theta1*depth(-1))]
Q(depth(-1))=[exp(theta2+theta3*depth(-1))/(1+exp(theta2+theta3*depth(-1))]
How do I tell Eviews to use the logistic distribution for the transition probability? Thanks in advance
I want to estimate a MS model with two states for volatility:
Vol=a*Vol(-1)+e, where a can be high or low depending on the state. See eq1 in the WF
Then I want the transition probabilities to depend on lagged market depth (Depth(-1)). P governs the transition probability during normal time (low a) and Q during stress periods (high a), I want both P and Q to follow a logistic distribution but with different parameters:
P(depth(-1))=[exp(theta0+theta1*depth(-1))/(1+exp(theta0+theta1*depth(-1))]
Q(depth(-1))=[exp(theta2+theta3*depth(-1))/(1+exp(theta2+theta3*depth(-1))]
How do I tell Eviews to use the logistic distribution for the transition probability? Thanks in advance