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Problem in forecasting with dynamic model

Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:12 am
by UmBert
I have a problem in forecasting with my dynamic model (dyn_fin) in the workfile. I have estimated my model with the dataset from 1978q1 to 2014q2 and now I want to estimate the "virtual future" from 2014q3 to 2016q2 for the variable PCI. When I try to do this I get only one point of forecast due to the adjustment of the sample (static and dynamic forecast as well). I can't understand why there is an adjustment because I don't have any missing data and with another similar workfile I do not have this problem.

Am I making a mistake?
Can someone help me to find the way to get my forecast with the right sample?

Re: Problem in forecasting with dynamic model

Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:26 am
by EViews Gareth
You don't have data for all of your regressors over the forecast period.

Re: Problem in forecasting with dynamic model

Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:33 am
by UmBert
No, this is not true. My dataset is complete until 2016q2.

Look at the attached screenshot.

Re: Problem in forecasting with dynamic model

Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 10:25 am
by EViews Gareth
Looks at the regressors.

Re: Problem in forecasting with dynamic model

Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 10:48 am
by UmBert
Can you suggest me the path to check for this because I don't know where to go.

Re: Problem in forecasting with dynamic model

Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 11:43 am
by EViews Gareth
For each regressor that you specified in the equation, look at the series and check if it has data

Re: Problem in forecasting with dynamic model

Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2016 12:44 am
by UmBert
I have checked each regressor and for each series I have the data until 2016q2 so this cannot be the problem. There are not any missing data in the whole series.

Re: Problem in forecasting with dynamic model

Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2016 8:10 am
by EViews Gareth
I suggest you look harder.
2016-08-12_080841.png
2016-08-12_080841.png (89.89 KiB) Viewed 6795 times

Re: Problem in forecasting with dynamic model

Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 2:41 am
by UmBert
OK...but in order to have the the missing data, I have to make a regression. If I made the regression, the forecast would be useless. This restriction on EView for what concerns forecasting makes the application totally useless...if you have the data, why forecasting?

Re: Problem in forecasting with dynamic model

Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:02 am
by startz
This has nothing to do with EViews. It is a fundamental issue with forecasting. You either need a model in which you know the future value of the right hand side variables or you need to build an auxiliary model to forecast those right hand side variables.