Comparing predictive power of sports odds
Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2016 8:10 am
For my MSc Thesis I would like to compare the predictive power of classic bookmakers on the one hand and a betting exchange on the other. I have a lot of data on both types of betting, mostly on soccer matches but I have data on other sports as well. I want to see from the implied probability in the odds if the betting exchange performs better.
I read about ROC-curve and Area under the curve as a measure but I am not sure if I can use this method in my case? Or do you know a better way see which odds predict the outcome of matches significantly better?
Thanks in advance
I read about ROC-curve and Area under the curve as a measure but I am not sure if I can use this method in my case? Or do you know a better way see which odds predict the outcome of matches significantly better?
Thanks in advance