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forecast standard errors series 'se' manually

Posted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 1:26 am
by ecofin
hi for all,
I have 100 obs estimated by simple exponential smoothing, after I have two series: original 'y' and forecast 'ysm' how can forecast standard errors series 'se' in this case?

thanks in advance.

Re: forecast standard errors series 'se' manually

Posted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:28 am
by EViews Gareth
I'm not sure I understand the question.

Re: forecast standard errors series 'se' manually

Posted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:48 am
by ecofin
I mean the coef uncertainly in S.E calculation.

Re: forecast standard errors series 'se' manually

Posted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:54 am
by EViews Gareth
But you're not forecasting from an equation.

Re: forecast standard errors series 'se' manually

Posted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:01 am
by ecofin
yes just explain for you, the simple exponential smoothing have not this option, how i can calculate the s.e in this case? :(

Re: forecast standard errors series 'se' manually

Posted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:10 am
by EViews Gareth
Well there's nothing built in that will calculate it. I guess you could take the theoretical model behind the exponential smoothing techniques and calculate the formula for the standard errors from it.

You'd probably be better off using ETS smoothing instead, which has forecast errors built in.

Re: forecast standard errors series 'se' manually

Posted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:17 am
by ecofin
thanks for your help and for your reply.