Granger Causality - VAR/VECM/?

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cointthesis
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Joined: Mon May 10, 2010 6:51 am

Granger Causality - VAR/VECM/?

Postby cointthesis » Mon Jun 28, 2010 5:45 am

Hello!

I am sorry if my question might seem stupid, but I was wondering how to best construct my granger causality test. I am investigating two time series, over a 5 year period with daily info and I also know that these time series are cointegrated. How do I know proceed with my causality test?

1. I thought about eventually simply taking the time series themselves, opening them as a group and conducting granger causlity tests in this way...Does this show me the granger causlity of the price development (my time series are price development series)

2. If i have cointegration I could also conduct the Granger Causality test on the basis of a VECM. In this case, for the lag interval do I simply take the lag interval used for the johansen test? or do I take this lag interval minus 1 (as VECM demands differenced data) and if, what happens if my original lag length was only 1 1? or do the lags need to be established in any other way?

3.if i conduct the granger causality with VECM what exactly am i comparing? the prie development? the models?

thank you in advance i really appreciate any help!!!
best regards,

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