johansen test - high trace / max. eigenvalue

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cointthesis
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johansen test - high trace / max. eigenvalue

Postby cointthesis » Thu Jun 17, 2010 5:44 am

Hi!

I am currently conducting johansen tests for daily future prices over a span of approx. 3 years, and I am wondering if the high values for the trace and the max. eigenvalue are "normal" or if they are caused by some misspecification or wrong lag length. (below one eviews output)

Date: 06/17/10 Time: 14:38
Sample(adjusted): 3/18/2008 3/31/2010
Included observations: 473
Excluded observations: 59 after adjusting endpoints
Trend assumption: No deterministic trend (restricted constant)
Series: ECX_LOG NP_LOG
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test

Hypothesized Trace 5 Percent 1 Percent
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Critical Value

None ** 0.315376 181.0594 19.96 24.6
At most 1 0.003897 1.846783 9.24 12.97

*(**) denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 5%(1%) level
Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating equation(s) at both 5% and 1% levels

Hypothesized Max-Eigen 5 Percent 1 Percent
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Critical Value

None ** 0.315376 179.2126 15.67 20.2
At most 1 0.003897 1.846783 9.24 12.97

*(**) denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 5%(1%) level
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating equation(s) at both 5% and 1% levels

Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
ECX_LOG NP_LOG C
-176.185 175.8039 2.681373
-0.291431 4.027155 -26.57482

Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(ECX_LOG) 0.000819 -0.001667
D(NP_LOG) -0.004337 -0.001459

1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 2688.972
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (std.err. in parentheses)
ECX_LOG NP_LOG C
1 -0.997837 -0.015219
-0.0016 -0.01155

Thx in advance for your help!

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