Only lagged dependent variable in ARDL long run equation and forecasting

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Taptap34
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Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2024 7:01 am

Only lagged dependent variable in ARDL long run equation and forecasting

Postby Taptap34 » Thu Aug 01, 2024 2:16 pm

Hello,

I've been trying to use an ARDL regression on Eviews 13 in order to obtain the long run relationship for my variables.
The problem is that in my long run equation I only obtain the lagged dependent variable with some lagged and non lagged independent variables. Example :
EC = Y(-1) - (a1*X1 + a2*X2(-1) + a3*X3(-1))

1- how can I repair this and obtain an EC equation for Y (with no lag)? And how to explain this if I must keep this equation especially when the dependent is lagged and the independent is not lagged. (like we explain the past by a future variable?? So weird!)

2- EXTRA question and does anyone has an idea for extracting directly only the long run relationship without any other Least Square Regression in order to forecast?

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