Dynamic Forecasting

For technical questions regarding estimation of single equations, systems, VARs, Factor analysis and State Space Models in EViews. General econometric questions and advice should go in the Econometric Discussions forum.

Moderators: EViews Gareth, EViews Moderator

marcounam
Posts: 49
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2011 10:42 am

Dynamic Forecasting

Postby marcounam » Thu Jul 28, 2011 9:36 am

Hello:

How can i do a dynamic forecasting of an equation of the form: Y_t=a+bX_t +Y_t-1? I have an equation like that and i want to do a dynamic forecast but the eviews options in the forecast button says: Static Forecast(no dynamics in equation) and doesnt give me the option of a dynamic forecast.

EViews Gareth
Fe ddaethom, fe welon, fe amcangyfrifon
Posts: 13604
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:38 pm

Re: Dynamic Forecasting

Postby EViews Gareth » Thu Jul 28, 2011 9:50 am

EViews will only offer dynamic forecasting if there are dynamics in the equation. You don't say how you specified your equation, but EViews doesn't believe you have dynamics in it.

marcounam
Posts: 49
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2011 10:42 am

Re: Dynamic Forecasting

Postby marcounam » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:10 am

Thanks for your answer. Here is my workfile so you can see the equations. What i dont understand is why eviews doesnt believe i have dynamics when there is a Y_t-1 in the right hand side of the equation?
Attachments
modelos tasas pds sistema final con yt-1.wf1
(114.22 KiB) Downloaded 276 times

EViews Gareth
Fe ddaethom, fe welon, fe amcangyfrifon
Posts: 13604
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:38 pm

Re: Dynamic Forecasting

Postby EViews Gareth » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:36 am

EViews isn't picking up the @qnorm properly. Probably best to create a temporary variable equal to the @qnorm, then use that in the equation.


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