Error generating equation prediction

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dagfinnrime
Posts: 54
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 9:37 am
Location: Oslo
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Error generating equation prediction

Postby dagfinnrime » Tue Mar 01, 2011 5:42 am

Hi,

Attached follows a data-file with an equation-object.

* The estimation works nicely over the whole sample
* Static fit works nicely over the whole sample
* Dynamic forecast/fit works only for the first few months.

My question is WHY?

The file differs from my file in that in my file all variables are linked to a sheet with higher frequency, which again is linked to several databases.

The equation object is generated with the following code:

Code: Select all

group xi44_BEER_l log(p_oil(-1)) u_gap_nok(-1)-u_gap_hpc(-1) idiff03m_hpcnok(-1) islopediff_hpcnok(-1) _ log(cpi_idx_nok(-1))-log(cpi_idx_hpc(-1)) group xi44_BEER_d dlog(p_oil) d(u_gap_nok-u_gap_hpc) d(idiff03m_hpcnok) d(islopediff_hpcnok) _ dlog(cpi_idx_nok)-dlog(cpi_idx_hpc) for %ccy i44 'eurnok for %model beer '[... several other models] equation eq_{%model}_{%ccy}.ls(cov="HAC") dlog(s_{%ccy}) c log(s_{%ccy}(-1)) x{%ccy}_{%model}_l x{%ccy}_{%model}_d next next
Thanks in advance

Dagfinn
Attachments
week_test.wf1
(86.67 KiB) Downloaded 386 times

EViews Gareth
Fe ddaethom, fe welon, fe amcangyfrifon
Posts: 13600
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:38 pm

Re: Error generating equation prediction

Postby EViews Gareth » Tue Mar 01, 2011 9:26 am

One of your independent variables has an NA for the period 12/28/1998. That means that the forecast value of the dependent variable for that period is an NA. Thus in a dynamic forecast, all future values of the dependent variable with be NA (since they depend upon that forecasted NA value). A static solve will be able to recover from that one period NA forecast.

dagfinnrime
Posts: 54
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 9:37 am
Location: Oslo
Contact:

Re: Error generating equation prediction

Postby dagfinnrime » Wed Mar 02, 2011 3:29 am

How embarrassing! I thought I had checked for that!

Sorry!


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