Dynamic & Static Forecasting

[brennan6738]

I am trying to Forecast an ARMA model using daily data going out one year (250 data points). I want to use the Static forecast, but it appears as though I have to run the model and forecast one dy at a time. Is there a way around that? When I use the Dynamic option that just sems to extrapolate a staright line...but I am forecasting an exuity index and I need to catch the ups and downs that will occur over the 250 days. Does anyone have a suggestion?

[trubador]

You need to use dynamic forecast for longer horizons, which will give produce something like straight line since your model is linear and the disturbance term is assumed to be zero. In order to capture the future ups and downs in your data, you should be able model them and incorporate into your original specification. If they behave randomly, then you can try simulation and scenario generation.