Short Term Interest Rate ARMA

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brennan6738
Posts: 31
Joined: Tue Sep 08, 2009 1:28 pm

Short Term Interest Rate ARMA

Postby brennan6738 » Mon Oct 04, 2010 8:11 pm

I am trying to forecast the LIBOR-OIS rate using monthly data going back to 2003. The SIC seems to suggest an ARMA(1,0) or ARMA(1,1). I have tried various models, and they consistently show the rate turning negative. I think it's a possibility, but highly unlikely. Is there a way to put a lower bound or adjust the model to give me a more realistic forecast? I tried adding a constant but that didn't fix the issue. Anyone have an idea?

startz
Non-normality and collinearity are NOT problems!
Posts: 3796
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2008 2:25 pm

Re: Short Term Interest Rate ARMA

Postby startz » Tue Oct 05, 2010 6:17 am

estimate log(interest) as the dependent variable


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