Search found 15 matches

by mandix
Wed Jul 18, 2012 2:26 pm
Forum: Estimation
Topic: C Coefficient Vector and state space models
Replies: 2
Views: 2992

Re: C Coefficient Vector and state space models

Thanks Gareth.
He came, he saw, he estimated (I actually looked it up! Google Translate is a great thing....)
by mandix
Wed Jul 18, 2012 8:46 am
Forum: Estimation
Topic: C Coefficient Vector and state space models
Replies: 2
Views: 2992

C Coefficient Vector and state space models

Just a simple general question. How does one change the C coefficient vector? (I am working with state space models.) Bonus question: say you run a state space model for the first time - you get "reasonable" results. Then you run it again. And you get this annoying "singular matrix&qu...
by mandix
Wed Jun 20, 2012 1:42 pm
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Dynamic/Static Forecasts with ARMA
Replies: 0
Views: 1770

Dynamic/Static Forecasts with ARMA

Hello, I have a question that I cannot figure out. I run a very, very simple ARMA(1,1) with the log of Louisiana employment data. [Cannot attach the workfile because I already have 3 attachments.] I get this: Stats-ARMA11.JPG Say I run a *static* forecast. I get this: Static-Forecast.JPG Now, I do t...
by mandix
Fri Jun 15, 2012 9:09 am
Forum: Estimation
Topic: State-space: signal equations with autoregressive errors
Replies: 2
Views: 2716

Re: State-space: signal equations with autoregressive errors

Startz, thanks, it is dawning on me that I have to learn to think outside the box.
Will try that.

Manfred
by mandix
Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:22 am
Forum: Estimation
Topic: State-space: signal equations with autoregressive errors
Replies: 2
Views: 2716

State-space: signal equations with autoregressive errors

Hello everyone, I was wondering if Eviews can handle State Space models where the signal equation has autoregressive errors. Specifically, I have in mind a model like the one attached in the picture. [This is from Alan Clayton Matthews and James Stock's paper in the Journal of Economic and Social Me...
by mandix
Thu Jun 14, 2012 2:24 pm
Forum: Estimation
Topic: chapter 35 UG II example armax(2,3) -state space models
Replies: 3
Views: 3577

Re: chapter 35 UG II example armax(2,3) -state space models

Glenn, sorry, got caught up in work, and could not answer.
Listen, thanks. Your comment makes sense.

Manfred
by mandix
Wed Jun 13, 2012 8:46 am
Forum: Estimation
Topic: chapter 35 UG II example armax(2,3) -state space models
Replies: 3
Views: 3577

chapter 35 UG II example armax(2,3) -state space models

I have a question that is killing me, and I am sure anybody of this forum can probably answer. It is with regard to state space models, and the example in Chapter 35 of the Eviews User Guide II. The example says: **ARMAX(2, 3) with a Random Coefficient We can use the syntax described above to define...
by mandix
Tue Jan 31, 2012 2:49 pm
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Dynamic forecast issue
Replies: 13
Views: 8102

Re: Dynamic forecast issue

Glenn, thanks again. Manfred
by mandix
Tue Jan 31, 2012 2:34 pm
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Dynamic forecast issue
Replies: 13
Views: 8102

Re: Dynamic forecast issue

Ok, I will chew on this, I do stand corrected then.
Thank you all for your kind patience.
by mandix
Tue Jan 31, 2012 2:22 pm
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Dynamic forecast issue
Replies: 13
Views: 8102

Re: Dynamic forecast issue

Startz, ok, then this makes me feel a little bit better... Because I also do find it somewhat confusing. Not sure if Gareth or Glenn could chip in to clear this up (probably for the n-th time). To repeat my problem: I ran a very simple ARMA(1,1) on the differenced time series of 3-month T-Bills. The...
by mandix
Tue Jan 31, 2012 12:32 pm
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Dynamic forecast issue
Replies: 13
Views: 8102

Re: Dynamic forecast issue

No - wait - I do not think it is that obvious. Startz, correct me if I am completely off, but what you are saying is true of out of sample forecasts, but not *in sample*. The MA for in sample *does not disappear*, it disappears with the last observation (more or less). But what I am saying is that i...
by mandix
Tue Jan 31, 2012 12:28 pm
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Dynamic forecast issue
Replies: 13
Views: 8102

Re: Dynamic forecast issue

Ahh, it was that obvious. Sorry. Thanks so much Startz.
by mandix
Tue Jan 31, 2012 10:48 am
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Dynamic forecast issue
Replies: 13
Views: 8102

Re: Dynamic forecast issue

Sorry, I think I am blind. My apologies. Attached is the file. I am running a simple ARMA(1,1) on the *differenced* series (so, it is more of an ARIMA (1,1,1)). The forecasted series is from a dynamic forecast. You will see that after a few months in the beginning, all values are the same. Thanks ag...
by mandix
Tue Jan 31, 2012 10:34 am
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Dynamic forecast issue
Replies: 13
Views: 8102

Re: Dynamic forecast issue

Yes, I would and want to; but I do not see how to attach a file... There is no "paper clip" (like in Outlook) that I can see, and it seems that I cannot "copy and paste" the file inside this dialog box (right-clicking the mouse does not enable me the Paste function). Which is the...
by mandix
Tue Jan 31, 2012 9:56 am
Forum: Econometric Discussions
Topic: Dynamic forecast issue
Replies: 13
Views: 8102

Dynamic forecast issue

I know that there are a gazillion posts and questions, all very patiently responded by (mostly) Gareth. I read many of them, and they were very helpful. BUT... I still have a question that is killing me. I am running a very simple ARMA(1,1), with monthly data, 1960m1 to 1996m3 (it is out of Pindyck ...

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