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How is initialisation undertaken for Holt's linear method? This is the third option in the exponential smoothing list (Holt-Winters no seasonal). I assume the initial level is just the initial actual value, but cannot see where the initial trend value comes from. I can work it out from the forecasts...

Many thanks for the full and prompt response- much appreciated.

With regard to the maximum lag for the ADF unit root test, am I right in thinking that there is an additional rule in version 7 with T/3 replacing 12 in the Schwert rule- with the minimum of the two used?? If so, is there a reference for this?

Am I right in thinking that there is an additional rule with T/3 replacing 12 in the Schwert rule- with the minimum of the two used?? If so, what is the reference for this?

Is there a simple command for reversing a series?
I appreciate that I could sort the entire workfile on the basis of a trend (in descending order), but I would like to do it for series individually and maintain the workfile structure. :?

Dear Gareth Many thanks for the post. It is a bit of an uncertain issue, at least as far as I am concerned. I was reading a text the other day which explicitly referred to including the constant when considering Box-Pierce Q-stats, but was then, at least in my reading of it, mixed on its inclusion o...

Given the absence of a reply to my message, I wondered whether it simply reflects a misunderstanding on my part- and hence does not need an answer!
Any comments would be much appreciated.
Thank you.

Does anyone have any views on this?

Just a quick question. When estimating an ARMA model with an intercept, the AIC uses the intercept in its calculation but the Q-stats do not. For example, an ARMA(1,1) with intercept uses k=3 in the calculation of the penalty attached to the log-likelihood, but the Q-stats use k=2 in the calculation...