%FirstActual = "1980q1"
%LastActual = "2011q4"
%FirstForecast = "2012q1"
%LastForecast = "2025q4"


matrix(436,184) long_run

smpl @all
series q1=@quarter=1
series q2=@quarter=2
series q3=@quarter=3
series q4=@quarter=4

vector(436) allmsa

allmsa.read(t=xls, a1, s=All436areas) "C:\Documents and Settings\scott.fawver\Desktop\All436areas.xls"

matrix(436, 56) forecast_values


for !j=1 to 1
	%msa=@str(allmsa(!j))
         	!i=allmsa(!j)

         	smpl {%FirstActual} {%LastActual} if newmsa=allmsa(!j)
	
		equation eq!i_1.ls log(y) c log(x1) log(x2) 

         	smpl {%FirstActual} {%LastForecast} if newmsa=allmsa(!j)
         	eq!i_1.fit yf
	
		series yf_!i=(yf)
        	rowplace(long_run, @transpose(@convert(yf)), !j)



    
    	smpl {%FirstActual} {%LastActual} if newmsa=allmsa(!j)
   
	equation eq!i_2.ls d(y) (x3(-1))  ((y(-1)) - (yf(-1))) d(y(-4)) d(y(-8)) q1 q2 q3 q4 ar(1) ma(1)


	smpl {%FirstForecast} {%LastForecast} if newmsa=allmsa(!j)     

	eq!i_2.forecast yfa_fcst_!i
     	
	series yfa_fcst=(yfa_fcst_!i)
	
     	rowplace(forecast_values, @transpose(@convert(yfa_fcst)), !j)

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