Forecasting a series without regressing

[thomaskm]

Dear all,

I'm on Eviews 5 and i have a problem with forecasting. I want to see the Mean Root Squared Error for two series, namely
a) Overnight Interest rates
b) Taylor-rule with prespecified coëfficients.
I did some googling and it seems as if everytime you want to do a forecast, Eviews wants to estimate the coefficients first. I already know the coefficients i want to use, and hence, want to skip this feature. So basically: i want to do a forecast without regressing first. Can anyone help me with this?

Thanks in advance,

Kind regards,

Thomas Kooiman.

[EViews Gareth]

You'll have to do it manually.

Code: Select all

series y_f = coef(1)+coef(2)*x+coef(3)*z


etc..

[thomaskm]

Thank you kindly for your response. If i understand what you're saying i need to construct a serperate series that contains all the coefficients and variables that are in the Taylor rule. After that I do a regression with command

ls overnight_int overnight_int_taylor

and proceed with a forecast..

[EViews Gareth]

No, I'm just saying you construct the forecast directly by hand.

[thomaskm]

Could you please clarify how exactly this is done? I appreciate your answers thusfar, but they haven't enabled me to figure out how to do this.
The following screenshot depicts the two series for which i want to know the root mean squared error.

Could you tell me the specific code on how to do this in this instance? If I know that i can continue to do it for the rest of my dataset.
Thanks a bunch in advance!

[EViews Gareth]

I'm confused. What are you trying to do? Where do those two series fit into the forecast you're trying to do?

[thomaskm]

Yes, I think i've been unclear. My apologies.
I think my use of 'forecasting' wasn't right, i don't think i want to forecast anything.
All i want to do is the following: calculate the RMSE for the two series depicted in the graph. So: for overnight_int and overnight_int_taylor, for the entire period (1991Q1-1998Q4). That's it. Hope this clears up what i'm asking.

[startz]

Subtract one from the other and look at the standard deviation?