flead option for x12 forecasts

[dasilver]

I am trying to forecast seasonal factors using the x12 adjustment. I am able to forecast 1 year of seasonal factors using this code (seasonal factors are saved as "prpayrolls2_d16":

prpayrolls2.x12(f, save="d16")

I would like to extend my forecast further, but am having trouble with the flead option. This code gives me the same 1 year of forecasts even though I am trying to specify forecasts for 60 periods:

prpayrolls2.x12(f, flead=60, save="d16")

Any help would be appreciated.

[EViews Gareth]

The maximum that x12 allows is one year of forecasts.

[dasilver]

The Eviews documentation for "flead" says:
Specifies the number of periods to forecast (to be used
in the seasonal adjustment procedure). The default is
one year and you can specify an integer up to 60.


Is there no way of forecasting more than one year?

[EViews Gareth]

The EViews documentation for "f" says:
Appends forecasts up to one year to some optionally saved
series. Forecasts are appended only to the following series
specified in the “save=” option: “"b1"” (original series,
adjusted for prior effects), “"d10"” (final seasonal factors),
“"d16"” (combined seasonal and trading day factors).

X12 doesn't allow you to forecast for more than one year.

[marend]

Dear Gareth,

In my understanding X12 does allow you to forecast more than one year (I usually run X12 using an excel Macro and I am able to forecast the seasonal factor and calendar effect up yo three years ahead using maxlead=36 in the forecast line of my .spc file).

If this is the case and I am right Eviews should have an option to show those forecast (beyond the 1 year ahead output the "f" option allows). Does flead option can be used for this purpose? if not what is purpouse of the flead option?

Thank you,

Mario

[EViews Gareth]

The version of X12 that comes with EViews is very old, it may be that they changed it in the more modern versions. Of course the latest version is X13, which EViews 8 supports, and is fully up to date.

[marend]

Thanks Gareth, do you know if its possible to simply change the x12a.exe for a newer version in the Eviews file, so I can obtained the same results that I get in my excel macro (3 years ahead forecasts for the seasonal factor).

Thanks!

Mario

[marend]

by the way is already working with x13.

Thanks Gareth!