Recursive Forecasts for MIDAS and Bridge Equations

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fsaunders
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon May 15, 2023 4:37 am

Recursive Forecasts for MIDAS and Bridge Equations

Postby fsaunders » Thu Sep 07, 2023 10:48 am

Hello!
I would like your help. I am developing MIDAS models and Bridge Equations to predict Quarterly GDP with monthly and weekly data. My data starts from 2000Q1 until 2023Q1 (for all the frequencies). I would like to make recursive forecast for the period 2018Q1 - 2023Q1, but I have no idea how I can program them.

My models are the following:

MIDAS1:
equation u_midas.midas(fixedlag=08, midwgt=umidas) y c y(-1) @ monthly\x1(-1) monthly\x2(-1) monthly\x8(-1) weekly\x11(-1) weekly\x12 (-1)

MIDAS2:
equation gets_midas.midas(fixedlag=12, midwgt=autogets) y c y(-1) @isperiod("2008Q3") @isperiod("2020Q2") @isperiod("2021Q2") @ monthly\x1(-1) monthly\x2 (-1) monthly\x8(-1) weekly\x11(-1) weekly\x12(-1)

Bridge - Transfer Function:
equation bridge.ls y c ar(1) ma(1) sma(4) @isperiod("2008Q3") @isperiod("2020Q2") @isperiod("2021Q2") x1 x1(-1) x2 x3

Currently what I was doing was the following process:
Estimate the model for the sample 2000Q1 to 2017Q4, then forecast 2018Q1. Then estimate the model again for the 2000Q1 to 2018Q1 sample, then forecast 2018Q2, and so on... but I would like to know if there is a more efficient way to do this process.

I would appreciate any help! Thanks in advance

EViews Gareth
Fe ddaethom, fe welon, fe amcangyfrifon
Posts: 13323
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:38 pm

Re: Recursive Forecasts for MIDAS and Bridge Equations

Postby EViews Gareth » Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:18 am

There's a program that does something very similar at the end of this blog post:
https://blog.eviews.com/2020/12/nowcast ... -gets.html
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fsaunders
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon May 15, 2023 4:37 am

Re: Recursive Forecasts for MIDAS and Bridge Equations

Postby fsaunders » Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:39 pm

Thanks! It works so good!


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