URGENT: AIC and SBIC criterion for forecasts

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stasibab
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URGENT: AIC and SBIC criterion for forecasts

Postby stasibab » Fri Jun 10, 2011 12:26 pm

Hello,

I would like to now if it is possible to estimate the bic and aic criterion for some forecasts.

For example if I have the 3 forecast results f1,f2,f3 and the original series 'sample'

if i perform a regression for each one, meaning for example dependant variable sample and independent f1, I will get AIC1 and BIC1? Am I right??

Thanx in advance!

EViews Gareth
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Re: URGENT: AIC and SBIC criterion for forecasts

Postby EViews Gareth » Fri Jun 10, 2011 2:25 pm

I don't understand the question.

If you run a simple regression, then, yes, the output will produce AIC and BIC.
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stasibab
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Joined: Sun May 08, 2011 2:20 pm

Re: URGENT: AIC and SBIC criterion for forecasts

Postby stasibab » Fri Jun 10, 2011 2:35 pm

The point is to estimate the quality forecast by the bic and sic, I was just not sure if to get the bics and sics have to do a simple regression with each one or with all the forecasts together like: dependant sample and independent f1 f2 f3 ;
it is just when I use one forecast the bics and sics of all three are almost equal and I thought that I did something wrong...

EViews Gareth
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Re: URGENT: AIC and SBIC criterion for forecasts

Postby EViews Gareth » Fri Jun 10, 2011 2:47 pm

Well it isn't clear what you mean by "AIC of forecast". The AIC is a statistic based upon a likelihood function. I don't see how that fits in with a forecast.
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stasibab
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Re: URGENT: AIC and SBIC criterion for forecasts

Postby stasibab » Fri Jun 10, 2011 2:57 pm

EViews Gareth wrote:Well it isn't clear what you mean by "AIC of forecast". The AIC is a statistic based upon a likelihood function. I don't see how that fits in with a forecast.

To make it more clear I have two series f1, f2 and I want to calculate their AIC1,AIC2 and BIC1,BIC2! This is what I want. I am a bit confused on how to do it with eviews...

EViews Gareth
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Re: URGENT: AIC and SBIC criterion for forecasts

Postby EViews Gareth » Fri Jun 10, 2011 3:02 pm

A series doesn't have an AIC, thus your question doesn't make sense.
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stasibab
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Re: URGENT: AIC and SBIC criterion for forecasts

Postby stasibab » Fri Jun 10, 2011 3:07 pm

Gareth I know this will make you laugh, but your last comment just cleared my mind on a lot of things I was troubled!! Sorry for the stupid question and thank u for the immediate response!!


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